In November 2021, Bitcoin fell just one cent short of reaching the $69,000 mark, setting a record at the time. It took the cryptocurrency almost two and a half years to break this historical high. The current growth has been ongoing for several months, demonstrating enviable stability. Analysts agree—the limit has not yet been reached.
Current Situation
As of March 14, the Bitcoin exchange rate on the Binance exchange exceeded $73,600 (117 181 504 NGN). Over the preceding week, its value reached new historical highs several times. Since the beginning of the year, the coin has appreciated by more than 70%, and its capitalization has exceeded $1.4 trillion. In the ranking of the largest assets by market capitalization, Bitcoin took eighth place, overtaking silver and Meta company shares in the top ten.
The previous cycle’s maximum was breached on March 5, when the price of Bitcoin confidently crossed the $69,000 (109 857 660 NGN) but then plummeted to $61,000 (97 120 540 NGN). Within a day, the course stabilized and continued to steadily rise.
At the end of December 2023, the Central Bank of Nigeria lifted the ban on investments in virtual currencies. The regulator stated that crypto companies must obtain a license, after which they will be able to serve bitcoin holders. The ban on purchasing digital currencies in the country had been in effect since February 2021.
Why Bitcoin Is Appreciating—Main Premises
Bitcoin is currently actively increasing in price, driven by a combination of several factors. The first premise is that US regulators approved spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), significantly simplifying access to buying cryptocurrency. The second is the upcoming halving. The third is the general improvement in the situation on traditional financial markets.
Bitcoin-ETF
An ETF is an exchange-traded fund that combines valuable assets. These, in turn, are divided into shares (trading units) that are traded on the exchange alongside stocks.
In January 2024, 11 collective investment funds in Bitcoin were launched on the US financial market. Investors gained the opportunity to buy shares of these funds through simple brokerage accounts. The essence is that the crypto asset itself does not transfer to the buyer’s ownership, but the price of its shares will increase proportionally to the dynamics of the cryptocurrency’s growth.
The increased demand for fund shares naturally leads to ETF issuers actively buying up digital coins for their provision. The IBIT fund by the international investment company BlackRock, whose Bitcoin balance now reaches almost 198,000 BTC (about $14 billion), is a case in point. At the same time, an average of a thousand bitcoins is mined daily. The supply significantly falls short of demand, leading to a deficit—a constant companion to the price increase of any asset.
Halving
Halving is a planned event that was initially incorporated into Bitcoin’s programming code and occurs every four years. It is an artificial process of reducing the rate of new coin mining, resulting in the miner’s reward for adding a new block to the blockchain being halved.
In the current cycle, the reward for confirming a block is 6.25 BTC. The upcoming halving is expected in April: as a result, the reward will decrease to 3.125 BTC. The cryptocurrency will become even more scarce: Bitcoin’s issuance is limited to 21 million digital coins, more than 19.6 million of which have already been mined.
The crypto market has experienced three Bitcoin halvings since its introduction in 2009. Each time, this was accompanied by a rise in the exchange rate: after each halving, the price reached a historical peak at the time within two years. This event further fuels crypto investors’ interest, leading to an increase in demand.
Situation on the Global Financial Markets
An expected improvement in the situation on traditional financial markets has been an equally favorable factor for Bitcoin’s trajectory. This was prompted by the possible lowering of key rates, as announced by the central banks of many countries at the beginning of the year. An IMF report, published in 2022, confirms the annual increase in correlation between digital currency and the stock market. The growing dependence of the crypto market on stock indexes is the result of influential institutional investors from various economic sectors entering the industry.
Is It Profitable to Buy Bitcoin Now?
The current situation on the cryptocurrency market is conducive to a continued increase in Bitcoin’s price. Experts had predicted this spring’s update of the historical maximum price as early as 2023. The course dynamics after previous halvings also indicate that the growth will continue.
At the same time, it’s worth paying attention to the fear and greed index. After updating the coin’s maximum price on March 5, it reached 90 points out of 100 for the first time in the last three years. This indicator reflects crypto investors’ tendency to buy or sell digital currency at the current moment.
During the rise in Bitcoin’s price, asset owners tend to greed, easily explained by the fear of missing out on profit. When the price falls and the index goes into the red zone, the emotional response becomes to sell coins.
According to the creators of the index, “extreme fear” (0–25 points) may indicate investors’ heightened concern, becoming a premise for a profitable asset purchase. Conversely, “extreme greed” (75–100 points) signals that a correction and a decrease in the course are expected in the market.
However, a price rollback in the near future will not be a surprise. It’s a natural phenomenon following the peak: before continuing to rise, the asset must stabilize at a new level after encountering a decrease in demand and seller pressure.
Bitcoin Forecast
According to analysts at the Bitfinex crypto exchange, the Bitcoin exchange rate to the dollar will surpass $100–120,000 (159 214 000–191 056 800 NGN) by the end of 2024, and the historical maximum of the cycle will be reached in 2025. The American hedge fund Pantera Capital bets that by 2025, the coin will appreciate to $147,000 (234 044 580 NGN). An even bolder forecast was made by the CEO of the cryptocurrency company Blockstream, Adam Back, stating that he expects Bitcoin’s price to rise to $100,000 before the halving occurs.
Despite all the positive forecasts and dynamics, it’s important to remember that any cryptocurrency is a risky volatile asset. The value of the digital coin can rise or fall by thousands of dollars in just one day. There’s always the possibility of a negative event that could lead to a price correction, from unforeseen regulatory measures to the bankruptcy of major companies in the crypto industry.
